The larger intentions of this blog and a request for help

This website is about exploring ideas about the future of Michigan. So far I'm the only one working on the site. As far as futurists go, I'm merely a serious hobbyist. I don't have a degree in foresight studies. I do have a long history in the news industry and I lecture on foresight subjects alongside more serious professionals at science fiction conventions. That's hardly an academic setting, but it has been a good introduction for me.

I am still learning how to formally think about the future as I ask you who read this blog to take what I post seriously. So why not learn first and then come back and start a blog about the future you say? That's a fair question.

My answer comes from a basic tenent of futures studies: you can't predict the future. All you can do is forecast scenarios based on the facts at hand as they develop. So pro futurists have an edge over the hobbyist by understanding the right formalized methodologies and having skills in the right kind of math. That's no minor thing. A great deal can be pulled from proper analysis of detailed histories. But the disciplines of futures studies go beyond mining statistics. It's a much broader endeavor.

Many people who are recognized as futurists come from a diversity of fields including science fiction writers like Vernor Vinge, Karl Schroeder, Bruce Sterling and the late Arthur C. Clarke, artists such as Syd Mead and Natasha More or brainy ecclectics like Ray Kurzweil or Buckminster Fuller.

When it comes to forecasting future scenarios, the best techniques come from a balance of analysis and imagination.

So far, this blog has mostly been an effort to parse the events that will become catalysts for our state's future. My larger intent has always been to establish a flow of inputs (current events and historical analysis) and then find and reach out to a community of thinkers and stakeholders (both readers and specialists) to develop a deeper dialogue about how the decisions we are collectively making in this state (and outside of it) might shape out tomorrow.

These decisions won't just come from technological innovation or the policy we erect to meet it. It will also come from within our imaginations. The imaginary images we develop of our future are one of the main resources used in the field of Futures Studies, both as a subject of analysis and as a starting point for the active development and pursuit of preferred scenarios. Jim Dator, Professor of Political Science at the University of Hawaii at Manoa explains the value of imagining the future:

"One of the things futures studies tries to do is to help people examine and clarify their images of the future--their ideas, fears, hopes, beliefs, concerns about the future--so that they might improve the quality of their decisions which impact it."

What I want for this website is to explore the various visions that already exist for our state in the future - be they in the arts, in the minds of regular citizens or articulated by our policy-makers. I would also like to look at those visions in contrast to real events as they develop "in the field" and find out how they jibe with that public view of where we think we'll end up. And perhaps, as the patterns emerge we can all discuss how we might alter course in a direction that we might prefer.

To underscore why I think all of this is important, I'd like you to consider the following presentation given at this year's TED conference.



With that in mind, I believe that the next step is to discuss the tools of futures studies and find ways to apply them. If this gains any momentum, it will require a transformation from a blog written by me into some kind of community. If any of you reading this actually know any futurists that live in Michigan feel free to contact me at:
futuremichigan (at) yahoo (dot) com

I've already begun the process of moving this website from a blog to a more community based platform. That new platform will be at www.foresightmichigan.com. At this point there is still no legal organization to this effort. For now, it's all just a self-funded website. But maybe a non-profit model is in its future. Feel free to e-mail me with thoughts and ideas on that as well.

Obama signs stimulus bill, could create 109,000 Michigan jobs

President Barack Obama signed into law his hard-fought economic stimulus plan in Denver today. Obama used the ceremony surrounding the stimulus bill at the Denver Museum of Nature & Science, to underscore investments the spending plan will make in the "green" energy-related jobs.

Specifically for Michigan the bill could lead to 109,000 new jobs. According to an Associated Press report, Council of Economic Advisers Chairwoman Christina Romer and Obama's chief economist, Jared Bernstein, estimated the number of jobs for Michigan by studying the stimulus package's effect on working age population, employment and industrial composition in each state.

Michigan's two Democratic senators and eight Democratic U.S. House members voted for the package. But none of the state's seven Republican congressional members did. They say it creates too much debt and not enough jobs.

Plans for the bills money and tracking of it's spending can be followed at www.recovery.gov

Wayne County, Tech Town To Launch Stem Cell Commercialization Center

According to various sources, Wayne County Executive Robert Ficano announced Thursday that the county will partner with Tech Town and Wayne State University to create the first "stem cell commercialization lab" in Michigan. I am assuming that a commercialization lab is a facility that focuses on turning basic science into salable products - something that the field of stem cell science has yet to see in any significant way.

"Wayne State and its University Research Corridor partners, the University of Michigan and Michigan State, are the greatest medical research assets we have in Michigan, and now we have a chance to share that brainpower with the rest of the world," Ficano told WWJ radio. "TechTown's Stem Cell Commercialization Center will be a place where researchers collaboratively accelerate the development of life-saving drugs, and create high-tech companies that bring those treatments to the global marketplace."

The lab already has a two-year, $2.9 million financial commitment from Wayne County for laboratory construction, equipment and management, and $1.5 million from Wayne State has challenged TechTown to raise matching funds as well.

For those of you who aren't aware of it's existence, Tech Town is a mini Nerd City within Detroit. The research and technology park, was established in 2000 by Wayne County with Wayne State University, General Motors and the Henry Ford Health System. The idea was to stimulate job growth and small-business creation by developing companies in emerging high-technology industries including advanced engineering, life sciences and alternative energy. Thirty-nine businesses currently operate within the twelve-block district. At least four of them specialize in in the biotech sector (one is a law firm).

For more information on Tech Town visit www.techtownwsu.org

Green energy industry sees growth

Rochester Hills-based Energy Conversion Devices Inc. has announced that revenue in its second fiscal quarter nearly doubled since the same quarter last year. To be precise, revenue rose to $103.1 million from $56.4 million the same quarter a year earlier. First quarter revenue was $95.8 million.

ECD manufactures and sells thin, flexible solar cells laminated on rolls of steel that can be mounted on the rooftops of commercial or (I assume) residential buildings.

Their Ovonic Materials Division makes a number of really cool products from hydrogen fuel cells to bioreformation devices (corn, switchgrass, etc. to hydrogen).

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Novi-based ITC Holdings Corp. announced on Monday plans to build "The Green Power Express", a modernized grid of electric transmission lines to carry power from wind rich regions of the Midwest to population centers. According to the project's website, this does not yet include delivering power to Michigan. However, the website also stated that an application to participate in the Midwest ISO MTEP process. For those not familiar (I wasn't), it's a regional plan for upgrading power infrastructure in the Midwest that has been ongoing for a while now. Several (if not all) Michigan based utility and transmission companies are currently a part of this project.

More idle speculation on superhero films in Michigan

This is not a news item. It's just me connecting imaginary dots because I'm a nerd. A few days ago I posted a quote about Sam Raimi trying to do secondary shooting for Spider-Man 4 in Michigan. Today I came across a Metromode story about the new film studio going up in an old auto plant in Pontiac. The studio will be run by Raleigh Studios in Hollywood. These guys have been around so long, their first production was with Mary Pickford.
What hasn't been noticed by the Michigan press outlets is that Raleigh has signed a long term contract with Marvel Studios to work on their next four superhero titles. Specifically "Iron Man 2," "Thor," "The First Avenger: Captain America" and "The Avengers."
I consider myself an amateur futurist in training, so it's pretty hard for me not to speculate on a scenario where Raimi sees all this action from Raleigh happening and gives them a call about breaking in some of the Pontiac people with his Spidey project. Maybe he gets the idea from this post. Maybe a few people that I know are reading this e-mail it to him or his brother Ted...
Just speculating. A junior foresight scientist has to practice his craft from time to time.

Stardock to open second games studio in Michigan

Stardock Corporation announced today that it is expanding its current games division and will open a second games studio in Michigan.
The new studio will create up to 50 much-needed jobs in the state of Michigan and will be responsible for an as-of-yet unannounced RPG title developed and published by independent developer Stardock Entertainment.

When evaluating where to open the second studio, Stardock considered several other states in which to open it due to the relatively high costs of recruiting game developers and artists to Michigan as well as some of the technology infrastructure challenges Michigan faces.

However, Wayne County in conjunction with the Michigan Economic Development Corporation as well as Plymouth Township coordinated to provide tax incentives and access to better communication infrastructure in order to make Michigan a more competitive choice to open the new studio.

Stardock President and CEO Brad Wardell said, "We're very pleased with the support we've received from Wayne County and the state of Michigan. We think Michigan is well placed to become a hub for technology companies thanks to new programs from the state to make Michigan more competitive to do business in. We look forward to continuing our strong growth with additional development projects over the next couple of years."

Singularity University could be a model for Michigan Higher Ed. programs

Somewhere between NASA's Ames center and the Google campus in California is the new Singularity University. Headed by inventor and futurist Ray Kurzwiel, the new interdiscliplinary university offers short graduate programs and executive seminars. I'm assuming that as they grow full degree programs will be offered, but it's the interdicipliary nature of the programs that fascinates me. Graduates from one kind of field are plugged into a different kind of field (like robotics with medicine) and a curriculum is built from there. The promo video explains it more visually.



Here in Michigan we have some pretty top flight universities and colleges. I wonder how many of them have similar programs geared towards the matching of cutting edge fields to generate innovation.